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© Ö Hallberg, Hallberg Independent Research,
2009
2008
Swedish Road Authority
Already since end of the 60's I have been interested in traffic
safety issues. In 1987 I presented a mathematical model for
predicting future traffic deaths based on the number of annually
increased number of registered cars used in the traffic. In
1997 basically the same model, but now more automated thanks
to Excel and better computers, was presented at a conference
in Lisbon, Portugal. Over the years this model has proved
to be the by far best model to predict future deaths in the
traffic. Many regression models have been used by the authorities
but in no way as good as this model based on a physical model.
In 2008 the Swedish Road Authority contacted me and asked
me to give a presentation for the traffic safety management
and their experts. So, in August 19 2008 I went to Borlänge
in Sweden and gave a 2h review of my modeling work.
Download Traffic (1,4 Mb)
2009
Danish Association for Applied Statistics
On Jan 15 2009 I was invited by the Danish Association for
Applied Statistics to give a presentation titled: Extracting
characteristic functions from growing populations - examples
from reliability, epidemiology, climate and traffic safety
research.
The seminar was well attended and the presentation rendered
lots of good questions. An abstract
can be downloaded. Also the ppt-presentation
can be downloaded (1,6 Mb).
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute
On March 18, 2009 I was invited to Linköping to present
my model work and to discuss possible future collaboration.
I gave basically the same presentation as I did for the Swedish
Road Administration, August 2008 (see above). The meeting
was very informative and I got lots of useful information
for future improvement and development of the model.
Örjan Hallberg, Hallberg Independent Research
http://hir.nu
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Traffic safety and forecasts