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© Ö Hallberg, Hallberg Independent Research,
2009
1987
This year I presented a paper on how it may be possible to
extract the inherent reliability function from field data
collected from growing populations. It was a SINTOM conference
and held in Visby, Sweden. The PC computing power was at that
time very low and the examples I presented took long time
to calculate. What at that time took 20 minutes takes today
less than 1 second! Instead of having the computer finding
the function that best fits data I presented a routin with
cut and try. Apart from analysing component reliability I
also gave an example from traffic safety where I could estimate
future deaths numbers. However, this work was the real base
for the more professional applications that were developed
later years. PDF-copy
308 kB.
1997
In a Master Thesis work Patric Oscarsson presented his work
at the ESREL conference in Lisbon 1997. He had developed a
fully working and sofisticated Excel application for the analysis
of field reliability data. This application has later on become
the base for all my research in different diciplines. In this
presentation we also made an analysis of traffic deaths in
Sweden and could use it for projection of future death numbers.
Since the method seems to give projections that have fit real
data up to 2007 very good also the Swedish Road Authority
has become interested and it was presented for the management
at their headquarter in August 2008. The application took
1,5 year to finish to its current state and the full version
is not for sale. PDF-copy
89 kB.
2009
In an ongoing cooperative work together with Vägverket
and VTI I am working on a descriptive paper to explain the
principal ideas behind the model I have been using. In a first
step the material will be given in Swedish, later on may-be
in English as a broader study on predictive methods for traffic
safety. The current version can be downloaded as a 700
kB pdf file. It may be updated at any time until it has
been accepted and incorporated in the total collaborative
paper.
Örjan Hallberg, Hallberg Independent Research
http://hir.nu
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Traffic safety and forecasts